That's not going to drive a strong inflation pulse, but we expect it will be sufficient to keep core inflation elevated close to the target midpoint.The New Zealand economy has been evolving broadly as expected, but softening near-term indicators have led us to downgrade the near-term outlook. Housing market strength, fiscal spending, high terms of trade, the tight labour market and low interest rates are expected to provide support. 2018 editions
But a lot can happen between now and then â and it will take some time for an interest rate increase to be on the table.
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2020 editions
We assume the coronavirus outbreak will weigh a little on our export prices and volumes in the near term, but impacts are highly uncertain at this stage. View, compare or manage a home loan designed for you
It is hardly a negative story.
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Momentum has slowed, and itâs likely this process has further to run as the drivers of growth continue to become less synchronised.
Headwinds look set to persist in 2019 but the year should be less stressful all up than 2018.
The ANZ Economics & Markets Research team is headed by Chief Economist, Sharon Zollner. Online tools to manage cash, foreign exchange & trade requirements
All up, slowing growth in the context of inflation thatâs still shy of the RBNZâs target midpoint means the case for a little extra monetary stimulus will become evident. July 2019: G rim (PDF 224kB) Headline business confidence fell 6 points to net -44% in July’s ANZ Business Outlook.
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Closed borders mean a smaller economy, and recessionary impacts of this are unavoidable.
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